Election Radar™
Intelligence for the New York Senate Race
New York • Senate Race
Bi-Weekly Report #6 • March 15-29, 2024
A
Alexandra Chen YOU
Democratic Nominee • Incumbent Senator
48.2%
Projected Vote Share
74
ESPS Score
↑3.2%
3-Month Trend
VS
BATTLING FOR 1.8M VOTERS
B
James Morrison
Republican Nominee • Former District Attorney
44.6%
Projected Vote Share
68
ESPS Score
↓1.5%
3-Month Trend
Voter Commitment Index
What This Means: Measures how locked-in your supporters are. Higher scores = voters who will show up and won't switch.
74
↑ +4 pts (3-month)
How This Helps You Win: Strong commitment means your base is solid. Focus on persuasion, not turnout.
Policy Trust Gap
What This Means: The difference between voters liking your policies and trusting you to deliver. Negative = dangerous.
-1.8
↓ -0.4 this month
How This Helps You Win: Warning sign! Voters like your ideas but doubt you'll execute. Fix this now.
Swing Voters (Upstate)
What This Means: Number of persuadable voters in key regions who could go either way. These decide elections.
342K
↑ +8% new persuadables
How This Helps You Win: Growth opportunity! 342,000 voters are winnable with the right message.
Opponent Vulnerability
What This Means: Measures how exposed your opponent is. Higher score = more voters willing to abandon them.
6.2
↑ +1.2 this month
How This Helps You Win: Major advantage! Opponent is weakening. Attack strategically where they're most vulnerable.
3-Month Win Probability Trajectory
How your chances have changed since January - and why momentum matters
You (Chen) +3.2%
Opponent (Morrison) -1.5%
Jan 1
Jan 15
Feb 1
Feb 15
Mar 1
Mar 15
Mar 29
What This Trend Means: You've gained 3.2% while your opponent has lost 1.5% over 3 months. Your "Upstate Economy" messaging is working.
The gap is widening in your favor. Keep pressing on economic trust.
Voter Capture Framework
Three real examples from this week's data showing exactly how we turn intelligence into votes
EXAMPLE 1: URGENT - Upstate Economic Message
DO THIS
Launch "Upstate Economy" Message
Focus on manufacturing jobs and cost-of-living in Erie, Monroe, and Onondaga counties. Use local business owners as messengers.
TV Ads
Radio
Direct Mail
CAPTURE THESE VOTERS
126,000 Persuadable Independents
Profile: White working-class, age 45-65, concerned about inflation, trust local news, leaning Republican but open to switch.
Switch Risk: 34%
Top Issue: Economy
INSIGHTS SUPPORTING CAPTURE
- ↑18% increase in economic anxiety (Mar)
- Local news trust: 72% among this segment
- Opponent's economic messaging has -8% resonance
- 3 focus groups: "Would consider Chen if she talks jobs"
EXAMPLE 2: Trust-Building with Suburban Women
DO THIS
Deploy "School & Safety" Testimonials
Feature Westchester County teachers and PTA leaders discussing education funding and community safety.
Facebook Ads
Mailers
Coffee Events
CAPTURE THESE VOTERS
88,000 Suburban Women
Profile: College-educated, age 35-55, moderate, concerned about schools and safety, low trust in politicians.
Trust Gap: -2.4
Top Issue: Education
INSIGHTS SUPPORTING CAPTURE
- Trust deficit of -2.4 among this group
- PTA leaders have 84% trust rating
- Opponent weak on education (-12% net favorability)
- "She listens" mentioned in 42% of verbatims
EXAMPLE 3: Youth Turnout - Digital First
DO THIS
TikTok/Instagram "Chen for Future" Series
15-second videos on climate, student debt, and housing. Feature young influencers and U Albany students.
TikTok Ads
Instagram
Campus Events
CAPTURE THESE VOTERS
215,000 Young Voters (18-29)
Profile: High enthusiasm but low turnout history. Care about climate, debt, and authenticity.
Turnout Risk: 62%
Top Issue: Climate
INSIGHTS SUPPORTING CAPTURE
- Climate is #1 issue for 18-29 (41%)
- You lead opponent +24% on climate
- TikTok reach: 340K in target demographics
- Early vote interest up 18%
How the Framework Creates Votes: Each recommendation starts with a specific action (DO THIS), identifies exactly which voters we'll capture (CAPTURE VOTERS), and shows the data that proves it will work (INSIGHTS). This isn't guesswork—it's intelligence.
What Drives Voter Choice
These are the factors that actually determine whether someone votes for you. Each includes importance weight and your current standing.
What This Means: Do voters believe you'll do what you say? Trust is the foundation of all political support.
Your Score
68
Opponent Score
72
Importance: 38%
CRITICAL
Gap to Opponent
-4 points
What This Means: Voters' confidence in your ability to handle jobs, inflation, and cost-of-living.
Your Score
74
Opponent Score
71
Importance: 32%
HIGH
Gap to Opponent
+3 points
What This Means: Do voters feel you understand them, share their values, and care about their struggles?
Your Score
81
Opponent Score
63
Importance: 22%
MODERATE
Gap to Opponent
+18 points
What This Means: Which news sources voters trust, and whether your message is reaching them through credible channels.
Your Score
52
Opponent Score
58
Importance: 18%
MODERATE
Gap to Opponent
-6 points
Strategic Insight: Your biggest advantage is Emotional Connection (+18). Your biggest weakness is Trust (-4).
Recommendation: Use your emotional connection to build trust. Feature testimonials from people who can vouch for your character.
Regional Vulnerability Heatmap
High Risk (Act Now)
Medium Risk (Monitor)
Low Risk (Stable)
| County / Region | Voters at Risk | Primary Issue | Trust Gap | Risk Level | Recommended Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erie County | 42,000 | Economy / Jobs | -3.8 |
HIGH
|
Launch "Upstate Economy" ads this week |
| Monroe County | 28,000 | Cost of Living | -2.1 |
MEDIUM
|
Radio buy + town hall planning |
| Onondaga County | 31,000 | Trust / Integrity | -2.8 |
HIGH
|
Local endorser testimonials urgent |
| Westchester | 12,000 | Education | +1.2 |
LOW
|
Maintain, no urgent action |
| Albany Area | 18,000 | Housing | -1.4 |
MEDIUM
|
Student-focused digital campaign |
IMMEDIATE ACTION REQUIRED: Erie and Onondaga counties show HIGH risk with over 73,000 voters likely to switch in the next 30 days.
Deploy the "Upstate Economy" message and local testimonials within 7 days to prevent a 5-7% vote swing against you.
Your Bi-Weekly Action Plan
Based on 3-month trends and current vulnerabilities - each action shows expected vote impact
PRIORITY 1 • URGENT
Deploy "Trust" Campaign in Erie County
Why this matters: 42,000 voters at risk. Trust gap of -3.8 is the largest vulnerability.
3 local business leaders ready to record testimonials. Focus on job creation and manufacturing. Radio + digital ads.
PRIORITY 2 • THIS WEEK
Shift Budget from Climate to Economy
Why this matters: Climate resonance dropped to 22% in Upstate. Economy is #1 issue for swing voters.
Move $45K from climate messaging to economic ads in Erie, Monroe, Onondaga. Use simplified "3-point plan" creative.
PRIORITY 3 • PLAN
Schedule 5 Town Halls in High-Risk Counties
Why this matters: Face-to-face interaction builds trust faster than any ad. Focus on listening.
Erie, Monroe, Onondaga, Albany, Westchester. Promote heavily in local media. Bring local endorsers.
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